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TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
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TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1100 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2008
GUSTAV HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEPART THE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI. HOWEVER RECENT HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS FROM GRAN PIEDRA CUBA SUGGEST THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THE LAST AERIAL RECONNAISSANCE OBSERVATIONS IN THE STORM DID NOT ACTUALLY SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 50 KT...BUT BASED ON THE TREND SEEN IN THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION WE ASSUME THAT GUSTAV IS PROBABLY VERY NEAR THAT INTENSITY BY NOW. CIRRUS MOTIONS INDICATE SOME MODEST NORTHERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM BUT OTHERWISE THE ENVIRONMENT SEEMS TO BE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...ONCE GUSTAV PULLS AWAY FROM HAITI. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH DAY 3. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SOME INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AT DAYS 4 AND 5... SO WE SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NOTWITHSTANDING...THERE IS VERY LITTLE...IF ANY...SKILL IN INTENSITY PREDICTIONS AT THESE EXTENDED RANGES. INDEED...IF ONE LOOKS AT THE LATEST WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT INCLUDED IN THIS PACKAGE...IT CAN BE SEEN THAT THERE IS NEARLY AN EQUAL CHANCE THAT GUSTAV WILL BE A CATEGORY 1...CATEGORY 2...OR CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE CENTER HAS BEEN WOBBLING AS IT INTERACTED WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS LANDMASS OF SOUTHWESTERN HAITI. HOWEVER A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...290/4...APPEARS TO HAVE RESUMED THIS MORNING. A 500 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR FLORIDA WITH AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING EASTWARD AND WESTWARD IS EXPECTED TO DRIVE THE STORM TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BEGINNING AROUND DAY 3...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SOME WEAKENING OF THE THE RIDGE OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SHOULD CAUSE GUSTAV TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IN 4 TO 5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS AND IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT BY DAY 5. ONE SHOULD NOT READ MUCH INTO SUCH SHIFTS OF THE FORECAST TRACK SINCE THE TYPICAL ERROR OF A 5-DAY PREDICTION IS OVER 300 MILES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/1500Z 18.8N 74.0W 50 KT 12HR VT 28/0000Z 19.0N 74.8W 55 KT 24HR VT 28/1200Z 19.2N 76.0W 60 KT 36HR VT 29/0000Z 19.3N 77.5W 70 KT 48HR VT 29/1200Z 19.9N 79.4W 80 KT 72HR VT 30/1200Z 21.5N 83.0W 100 KT 96HR VT 31/1200Z 24.5N 86.0W 100 KT 120HR VT 01/1200Z 28.5N 88.5W 100 KT
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Disaster-related News Releases
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Disaster-related News Releases
Click HERE to read the latest Storm-related News Releases.
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HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
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HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2008
AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION EARLY THIS MORNING FOUND PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 91 KT...AND AN SFMR SURFACE WIND OF 78 KT. THESE MEASUREMENTS SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KT. A DROPSONDE RELEASED IN THE EYE OF GUSTAV DURING THE LAST AIRCRAFT PASS THROUGH THE CENTER JUST BEFORE 1200 UTC...FOUND A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 982 MB...BUT WITH 12 KT OF WIND AT THE SURFACE...SO THE MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS BEEN ESTIMATED SLIGHTLY LOWER. THE AIRCRAFT AND EARLIER MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A VERY SMALL EYE...HOWEVER THE EYE HAS NOT YET BECOME APPARENT IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. GUSTAV CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HAITI...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 325/8. TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST VERY SOON AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER FLORIDA. THERE REMAINS A LARGE AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE MODELS AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND. THE 00Z UKMET AND ECMWF MODELS MAINTAIN THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH KEEPS GUSTAVE MOVING WESTWARD TOWARDS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE GFDL...HWRF...AND GFS WEAKEN THE RIDGE WHICH ALLOWS FOR A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE GFS/HWRF SCENARIO AND IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HAITI. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING GUSTAV'S PASSAGE OVER LAND...AND SINCE IT IS A VERY SMALL SYSTEM IT COULD WEAKEN A LITTLE MORE THAN SHOWN BELOW. THEREAFTER...GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER WARM WATERS AND IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...WHICH FAVORS STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BELOW THAT OF THE GFDL... BUT IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND THE HWRF. ONE SHOULD REMEMBER THAT 4 AND 5 DAY FORECASTS ARE SUBJECT TO POTENTIALLY LARGE ERRORS IN BOTH LOCATION AND INTENSITY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/1500Z 17.9N 72.4W 80 KT 12HR VT 27/0000Z 18.6N 73.3W 75 KT 24HR VT 27/1200Z 19.1N 74.6W 80 KT 36HR VT 28/0000Z 19.3N 75.9W 85 KT 48HR VT 28/1200Z 19.4N 77.3W 90 KT 72HR VT 29/1200Z 19.9N 80.2W 100 KT 96HR VT 30/1200Z 21.5N 83.5W 105 KT 120HR VT 31/1200Z 24.0N 87.0W 105 KT
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Coast Guard Underway
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Coast Guard Underway (Video)
JACKSONVILLE, Fla. - A Coast Guard boat crew returns from Downtown Jacksonville during Tropical Storm Fay on Aug. 22, 2008.
Click HERE to View.
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN
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SOUTH REGION Weekly Violations
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SOUTH REGION Weekly Violations
SOUTH REGION A
BROWARD COUNTY
On August 16, Officer Robert Kuester was on water patrol when he observed two subjects diving from a kayak. Officer Kuester secured his vessel and returned to the beach where the subjects had launched. An inspection of their catch revealed an undersized lobster. The subjects were cited and the lobster was returned to the water.
On August 17, Officers William Carpenter and Paul Mendez and Lieutenant Dave Bingham were at the Area 2 boat ramp when they observed a subject feeding alligators Goldfish crackers. The subject stated she preferred using marshmallows but didn’t have any. Officer Mendez issued her a citation for the violation.
GLADES COUNTY
On August 17, Lieutenant Eddie Brown was patrolling Lake Okeechobee for violations associated with the alligator hunt. Around 3:30 a.m., Lieutenant Brown caught two subjects hunting outside their assigned harvest area. They were hunting in the Lakeport area although they were supposed to be in the north zone. They admitted they were trying to harvest a twelve foot alligator. At 5:30 a.m., Lieutenant Brown observed another vessel whose occupants were hunting out of their assigned area. The three subjects received citations.
PALM BEACH COUNTY
On August 20, an employee of a local wildlife sanctuary reported the escape of a lion and tiger from their enclosure. The employee reported she had observed the lion still on the premises, but had not the tiger. Subsequently, the lion was tranquilized and recaptured. The tiger was then discovered minutes later at the other end of the property and also tranquilized. The animals were secured and the enclosure repaired to ensure no further escapes would take place. FWC investigators thoroughly inspected the rest of the property for compliance with applicable regulations.
SOUTH REGION B
COLLIER COUNTY
Officer Shawn Polly observed a subject utilizing several “bush hooks” along a canal in Naples. The subject was checked and found to be in possession of 53 bush hooks but no commercial freshwater fishing license. The subject was familiar with the regulations and even had an application for a commercial license with him. All 53 hooks were seized.
MIAMI-DADE COUNTY
A pair of Mercury 225 horsepower, four-stoke outboard motors were recently forfeited to FWC pursuant to the Florida Contraband Forfeiture Act. The seizure, investigation and forfeiture were handled by area investigators after observation of suspicious circumstances at a local boat ramp. A criminal investigation of the boat owner is being handled by a federal law enforcement agency.
MONROE COUNTY
Officers were busy preparing for the arrival of Tropical Storm Fay.
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SOUTHWEST REGION Weekly Violations
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SOUTHWEST REGION Weekly Violations
HERNANDO COUNTY
On August 17, Officer Damon Pulaski was checking vessels returning to the Bayport boat ramp. One vessel that had returned from scalloping was in possession of five pints of meat, which is over the limit for the five people on board, and another 10 gallons of unshucked scallops. The owner of the vessel told Officer Pulaski that it was not worth the gas to drive from Lakeland for only 10 gallons of scallops. He was cited and the scallops were seized as evidence.
On August 20, Officer Annie Plastic and Reserve Officer Bryce Phillippi observed three subjects who were picking palmetto berries adjacent to the Chassahowitzka Wildlife Management Area. They did not see the officers as they stopped with cutters in hand and began picking the berries. The subjects were cited for harvesting palmetto berries without a permit, and the berries were returned to the wildlife management area.
HIGHLANDS COUNTY
On August 15, the opening night of the public alligator hunt, Officer Joe Brooks took a Channel 2 news crew from Ft. Myers on patrol on the Kissimmee River. The NBC crew observed and recorded how alligators were taken, as well as our efforts regarding safety and enforcement. They were thoroughly satisfied with the experience.
On August 16, Officer Erika Zimmerman and Reserve Officer Dale Knapp were patrolling Lykes property when they saw a suspicious vehicle leaving the area. The officers stopped the vehicle and questioned the operator. They discovered the subject had an outstanding active warrant for driving under the influence with serious bodily injury. The subject was placed under arrest and turned over to the sheriff's office.
On August 17, Officer Zimmerman was on water patrol on Lake June and noticed a young looking child operating a PWC. She confirmed the operator was 11 years old and cited the father of the child for the misdemeanor violation.
LEE COUNTY
On August 15, Officer Jonathan Ruggiero was in the area of Dog beach and observed two people cast netting. Officer Ruggiero waited for them to return to the parking area before making contact with them. When questioned, the male subject was not truthful concerning their catch. Officer Ruggiero located an undersize snook in a bucket they had in their possession. The male subject was cited for taking snook out of season and an undersize snook.
PASCO COUNTY
On August 16 and 17, Officers Sean Smith, Donnie Jones, Joe Wolff, and Henry Perez, along with Reserve Officer Bryce Phillippi and Lieutenant Pam Hoback, conducted a deer decoy detail in an area where there were repeated reports of shots being fired at night. After retrieving the decoy at the conclusion of the detail, a truck that had passed by earlier in the evening returned, driving slowly as it shined the field where the decoy was located. Once the truck passed, the officers heard a shot come from the vehicle. A few minutes later, the vehicle was seen heading in the opposite direction. Officers stopped the vehicle and observed an enormous amount of blood spattered across the back of the truck and tailgate. A doe, still alive, was found in the bed of the truck. The subjects were arrested for illegally taking or possessing deer. One of the subjects was additionally charged with discharging a firearm from a right-of-way and possession of cannabis (less than 20 grams). The officers seized a Mossberg 12-gauge shotgun, approximately 20 shotgun shells, and a Black and Decker spotlight. The truck was impounded and the subjects were transported to the Pasco County jail.
POLK COUNTY
On August 15, Lieutenant Lee Birge received a complaint that several licensed alligator hunters had started their hunt early on Lake Hancock, but he was not able to arrive in time to observe any violations. He set up surveillance on one of the vessels reported to be involved and watched the occupants hunt for several hours. He later stopped the vessel to conduct an inspection. He observed a subject holding one end of a buoy line that was secured to a harpoon tip. The harpoon tip was protruding from a small wild hog that was swimming in the water in front of the vessel. During interviews, Lieutenant Birge learned the alligator hunters heard the pig squealing and when they went to investigate, they found a dog trying to catch the pig in the water. The man holding the buoy line harpooned the pig. The subject was charged with taking wildlife by illegal method and the pig was released.
On August 16, Officer Dirk Williamson observed three subjects hunting alligators in Pool A of the Kissimmee River. One of the subjects was shining a spotlight and holding a crossbow. The subject with the crossbow received a notice to appear for not having a license to hunt alligators.
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NORTHEAST REGION Weekly Violations
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NORTHEAST REGION Weekly Violations
BREVARD AND INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES
Officers Chase Platt, Van Streety, Bill Lowry, Philip Glover, Damon Saunders, Kris Culver and Lieutenant Travis Franklin worked a detail along the St. John’s River over the weekend of August 15 through 17 for the opening of the alligator hunt. Seven citations were issued for violations involving hunting alligators out of assigned zone and hunting alligators without a permit. Numerous warnings were issued for similar hunt violations and boating safety infractions during the hunt.
LAKE COUNTY
Officer Steve Adam was checking three fishermen in Alexander Springs Creek in Astor. One subject had active warrants in Marion and Lake Counties. The subject was booked into the county jail.
MARION COUNTY
Officer Joe Simpson coordinated a detail for the opening of alligator hunting season in Lake and Marion counties with Officers John Wilke, Steve Adam, Wash Wear, Wayne Hargabus, Tom Kist, Ian Sweet, Joe Johnston Jr. and Lieutenant Kevin Steinke participating. A few minor violations were cited for boating safety issues and Officers Kist and Sweet cited a subject for hunting in a closed area and operating an airboat on Emeralda Marsh.
On the evening of August 16, while attempting to work the gator hunting detail, Officers Hargabus and Wear responded to a boating incident on Lake Kerr. It was reported that two females were in a vessel that ran into the weeds and they were possibly injured. The sheriff’s office and EMS responded, and the women were transported to Munroe Regional Hospital to be monitored for possible injuries. Officers Wilke and Simpson went to the hospital and attempted to get witness statements from the females but they were very uncooperative. It was learned that neither woman was injured and there was no damage to the vessel. One of the women then advised the officers she had been sexually assaulted while on the lake. The sheriff’s office responded to the hospital and is continuing the investigation.
During the night of August 17, Officers Wilke and Adam were attempting to locate alligator hunters in the Eureka area of the Ocklawaha River when they observed a truck drive under the Hwy. 316 bridge. The officers used their night vision goggles to observe the subject in the truck. They approached the truck on foot and encountered a male subject that was obviously seriously injured. The subject was bleeding heavily from both of his arms and was attempting to commit suicide. He was on the phone with his mother-in-law, and she advised the officers that the sheriff’s office was looking for him. The subject had just been involved in a domestic incident, and the sheriff’s office was actively searching for him. The officers quickly summoned the sheriff’s office and EMS, who transported him to the hospital.
On August 17, Officers Emily Vought and Kat Kelley were on water patrol on Lake Weir. They observed a vessel violate an idle zone and watched a passenger on the vessel throw a cup into the water. The vessel was stopped and the driver showed signs of impairment. After performing and failing numerous field sobriety tasks, the operator was taken into custody for boating under the influence and booked into the county jail.
Officers Wilke and Simpson received information of subjects pulling gopher tortoises on a horse farm. The officers located two subjects with gopher remains in their yard and in the trunk of their car. The foreman of the ranch was also interviewed and advised the officers of how he asked the subjects to remove the tortoises from the farm. All three subjects will be cited accordingly after consulting with the state attorney’s office.
Officers Wilke and Simpson received information of subjects dumping litter on Ross Prairie. The officers responded and found suspect information in the trash pile. After tracking down the suspects and interviews, three sworn confessions were given to the officers. All three subjects will be cited accordingly.
PUTNAM COUNTY
On August 20, Officer Ben Eason responded to a complaint where a witness had observed a Satsuma man shoot an alligator. After taking statements, Officer Eason direct filed charges with the state attorney’s office charging the individual with taking alligator.
SUMTER COUNTY
In the early morn | | | | |
